Everyone is talking about the Oscars, why should this blog be any different?

Wrong arm of the law: Rockwell and McDormand face off in Three Billboards

This year's Academy Awards ceremony takes place tomorrow (Sunday, March 4), so I thought it might be fun to take a look at which movies, actors and directors are being tipped to pick up the Oscars. Rather than rely only on my own prejudices and predictions, I've also taken a look at what people who know what they are talking about reckon, and have presented the results below. There's nothing scientific about it, the 10 websites/publications I chose to feature here were randomly selected, but paint an interesting picture of where the smart money in each category is going. Featuring every one of the Oscars' 24 different categories would take all day, so I've chosen just 13 to talk about (not all of our tipsters made predictions in every category). Before diving in, you can check out all this year's nominees here.

Best Picture
Variety: Get Out
EW.com: The Shape Of Water
USA Today: Three Billboards
Vanity Fair: Get Out
Hollywood Reporter: The Shape Of Water
Den Of Geek: The Shape Of Water
Deadline: The Shape Of Water
New York Times: The Shape Of Water
Daily Telegraph: Get Out
The Playlist: The Shape Of Water

Of the "big six" categories, this is the only one that our tipsters can't seem to agree upon. It looks like a three-way tussle between Get Out, The Shape Of Water and Three Billboards, with Guillermo Del Toro's Cold War fairytale having the edge. The fact Martin McDonagh didn't pick up a Best Director nomination is not a good sign for Three Billboards' chances – only four films in Oscars history have won Best Picture without an accompanying Best Director nod. The last time it happened was in 2013, when the mediocre Argo somehow took the top prize, while helmer Ben Affleck was left out in the cold. On the other hand, the Academy are not exactly the biggest fans of sci-fi/fantasy or horror, which seems to count against Get Out and Shape. I reckon Del Toro's film might just take it, although it wouldn't surprise me if Three Billboards repeated its success from the Baftas and Golden Globes. A win for Shape, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread or would make me most happy.

Gone fishing: Sally Hawkins stars in Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape Of Water

Best Director
Variety: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
EW.com: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
USA Today: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
Vanity Fair: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
Hollywood Reporter: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
Den Of Geek: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Deadline: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
New York Times: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
Daily Telegraph: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
The Playlist: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)

Bless Den Of Geek for trying to make this category's potential outcome a little more interesting, but our other tipsters all seem to think there's only one horse in the race. The Shape Of Water isn't perfect, nor is it even Del Toro's best film, but he looks a shoo-in. As the New York Times pointed out, a Del Toro victory would mark the fourth time in five years a Mexican has won the Best Director Oscar. This is a very strong category and I'd be delighted whoever won.

Drive angry: Ronan and Metcalf feud in Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird

Best Actress

Variety: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
EW.com: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
USA Today: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Vanity Fair: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Hollywood Reporter: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Den Of Geek: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Deadline: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
New York Times: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Daily Telegraph: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
The Playlist: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

One thing I think we can all agree upon is that The Shape Of Water's Sally Hawkins hasn't got a prayer here. In the year of #MeToo and #Time'sUp, there's no way the Academy is going to give its Best Actress gong to someone playing a mute woman. Thing is, I'm not sure McDormand should be carrying off the award either. Three Billboards' grieving mother Mildred Hayes might seem fearless and righteous but, once you recover from the initial shock of her behaviour, you realise she's incredibly one-note. Angry and mean, angry and mean, rinse and repeat. McDormand couldn't turn in a mediocre performance if her life depended on it and she rises impressively to the challenge of her thinly-written role, but, if we're discounting Hawkins, there's one place and one place only this award should be going. Saoirse Ronan's performance in Lady Bird turns what would be a very good coming-of-age movie into a great one.

Life during wartime: Kristin Scott Thomas and Gary Oldman star in Darkest Hour

Best Actor

Variety: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
EW.com: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
USA Today: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Vanity Fair: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Hollywood Reporter: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Den Of Geek: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Deadline: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
New York Times: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Daily Telegraph: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
The Playlist: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Gary Oldman it is then. Helped by some fine prosthetic work, he is terrific as Winston Churchill, but I have a preference for actors who create their characters from scratch, rather than turning in impersonations, however impressive and eye-catching they might be. I shall be rooting for Daniel Day-Lewis, and not just because his turn as dressmaker Reynolds Woodcock in Paul Thomas Anderson's sublime Phantom Thread supposedly marks his acting swansong. His character is a difficult and complicated man, and Day-Lewis captures every infuriating nuance of him. It is the best performance in this category by a considerable margin, and Day-Lewis fully deserves another Oscar to go with the three he has won already.

Bird is the word: Allison Janney as Lavona Golden in I, Tonya

Best Supporting Actress

Variety: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

EW.com: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

USA Today: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Vanity Fair: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Hollywood Reporter: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Den Of Geek: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Deadline: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

New York Times: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Daily Telegraph: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
The Playlist: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Another category in which the victor seems nailed on, with Den Of Geek's alternative suggestion one surely born of hope rather than expectation. Allison Janney is a terrific actress with a glittering CV but, like Frances McDormand in Three Billboards, her character in I, Tonya – disgraced ice-skater Tonya Harding's mother, Lavona – is extraordinarily one note. She's a pantomime villain in a cartoonish film and Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), for their far subtler work, would both be far more deserving victors.

Maniac cop: Harrelson tries to keep Rockwell out of trouble in Three Billboards

Best Supporting Actor
Variety: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
EW.com: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
USA Today: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Vanity Fair: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Hollywood Reporter: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Den Of Geek: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Deadline: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
New York Times: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Daily Telegraph: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
The Playlist: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

After winning a Golden Globe, a Screen Actors Guild Award, and a Bafta, it would be a shock of seismic proportions if Sam Rockwell didn't clean up here too. As you may have gathered, I'm not a big fan of Three Billboards, so find it impossible to share the enthusiasm for either the film or his performance in it. I didn't believe in Rockwell's character – racist cop Jason Dixon – for a single second, least of all his "redemption" of sorts towards the end. Woody Harrelson is better in the same film, while Christopher Plummer surely deserves some sort of medal for stepping into Kevin Spacey's shoes at very short notice to portray John Paul Getty so vividly in All The Money In The World. Personally, though, I'd like to see Willem Dafoe win for his warm-but-increasingly-exasperated turn as motel manager Bobby, in The Florida Project, a wonderful film that has been all but ignored by the Academy. 

Dear white people: Get Out is in the running for the Best Picture Oscar

Best Original Screenplay
Variety: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
EW.com: Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Vanity Fair: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Hollywood Reporter: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Den Of Geek: Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor (The Shape Of Water)
Deadline: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
New York Times: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
The Playlist: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

As much as I adore Lady Bird, if Get Out doesn't win here there should be some sort of lengthy and far-reaching public inquiry. Jordan Peele's script manages to mix comedy, drama, horror and biting social satire to extraordinary effect. Some reports have suggested older members of the Academy have refused to even watch Get Out because they don't consider it an "Oscar film". These are probably the same people who voted for Argo...

Apes of wrath: Andy Serkis and Co are back for the prequel trilogy's climax 

Best Visual Effects
Variety: War For The Planet Of The Apes
Vanity Fair: War For The Planet Of The Apes
Hollywood Reporter: Blade Runner 2049
Den Of Geek: War For The Planet Of The Apes
Deadline: War For The Planet Of The Apes
The Playlist: War For The Planet Of The Apes

The final part of the Planet Of The Apes prequel trilogy would be a worthy winner here, with Andy Serkis and his motion-capture acting troupe once again knocking it out of the park. Blade Runner 2049 boasted some superb visuals, but was surely torpedoed by that one scene towards the end featuring a returning character from the original film. It looked every bit as convincing as the Grand Moff Tarkin CG creation did in Rogue One. So, not very then.

Orange crush: Will it be 14th time lucky for Blade Runner 2049's Deakins?

Best Cinematography

Variety: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
Vanity Fair: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
Hollywood Reporter: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
Den Of Geek: Dan Laustsen (The Shape Of Water)
Deadline: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
The Playlist: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)

After 13 previous nominations, his first for The Shawshank Redemption back in 1994, this is surely the year when Roger Deakins finally breaks his Oscars duck. Blade Runner 2049 is a deeply flawed film, its merits almost entirely down to Deakins' DP work. The astonishing sequence set in what used to be Las Vegas, with the former casino capital swathed in bright orange fog, is the stuff of pure cinema. Could anything stop him? Indeed. As Variety points out, it’s rare for the cinematography prize to go to a film that isn't nominated for Best Picture. Plus, his rivals – which include Mudbound's Rachel Morrison, the first woman ever to be nominated in this category – would hardly be undeserving winners either. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed though.

Wonder Woman: Daniela Vega shines in Sebastián Lelio's film

Best Foreign-Language Film

Variety: A Fantastic Woman
Vanity Fair: A Fantastic Woman
Hollywood Reporter: The Insult
Deadline: The Insult
New York Times: A Fantastic Woman
The Playlist: A Fantastic Woman

There's a split here between Chile's A Fantastic Woman (directed by Sebastián Lelio) and Lebanon's The Insult (helmed by Ziad Doueiri). This is a strange one for me as I'm yet to see the latter film (it doesn't seem to have a UK release date yet). And while I enjoyed A Fantastic Woman and it would be a worthy winner, I'll be cheering for off-beat romance On Body And Soul (from Hungary) and excoriating missing-child drama Loveless (from Russia). The Square, last year's winner of the Palme d'Or at Cannes, is also nominated, but didn't deserve that award and doesn't deserve to triumph here either. (Oh, and BPM's omission from the final shortlist looks even sillier now, after Robin Campillo's film bagged six awards at the Césars).

Summer nights: Call Me By Your Name was one of 2017's most passionate love stories 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Variety: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
EW.com: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
Vanity Fair: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
Hollywood Reporter: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)

Den Of Geek: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
Deadline: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
New York Times: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
The Playlist: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)

I'm surprised Call Me By Your Name is seen as such a dead cert here because it's the film's languid pace, winning performances and sumptuous camerawork that are its selling points, rather than any sparkling dialogue or innovative storytelling. Still, no one would begrudge James Ivory – who adapted André Aciman's novel for the big screen – a first Academy Award at the age of 89, after being nominated on three previous occasions as Best Director. However, for my money, this award should be going to Dee Rees' Mudbound, which makes good use of multiple narrators to tell an ambitious tale of two families – one white, one black – in the American South, post-World War II. In two hours and change, Rees' adaptation of the Virgil Williams novel covers an awful lot of ground and does so powerfully, economically and poetically.

What not to wear: Another Woodcock "classic" is unveiled in Phantom Thread

Best Costume Design

Variety: Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)
Vanity Fair: Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)
Hollywood Reporter: Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)
Den Of Geek: Jacqueline Durran (Darkest Hour)
Deadline: Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)
The Playlist: Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)

One of Phantom Thread's best jokes is that Reynolds Woodcock's dresses are all fairly horrible and the rich, indolent fools who troop through his palatial London fashion house have terrible taste. The idea Paul Thomas Anderson's film should therefore find itself nominated in this category is something I suspect the director finds genuinely amusing (not to mention ironic). The way things are shaping up, it's likely to be the only Oscar the film takes home, so I'm nevertheless hoping for a win.

The great escape: Nolan's Dunkirk expertly recreated Operation Dynamo

Best Original Score
Variety: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)
Vanity Fair: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)
Hollywood Reporter: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)
Den Of Geek: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)
Deadline: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)
The Playlist: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)

The Shape Of Water is again the frontrunner here, but I hope this is one category where it doesn't emerge victorious. Alexandre Desplat's score is perfectly lovely, fitting both the film's romantic and fairytale themes, but it simply isn't in the same league as at least two of the other nominees. Hans Zimmer's score for Dunkirk is an exercise in tension. Start listening to it and I guarantee that, within five minutes, you'll be biting your nails, tapping your foot and feeling decidedly on edge. Of all five scores nominated in this category, it is the one that fits the film's visual and storytelling elements most perfectly. Jonny Greenwood's score for Phantom Thread is far more decorative, a sumptuous, lavish creation recorded with a 60-piece orchestra. Simply put, it's beautiful. Zimmer or Greenwood would be very worthy winners here.

The 90th Academy Awards, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, will be shown live in the UK on Sky Cinema Oscars tomorrow night (Sunday, March 4). Red carpet coverage commences at midnight (so, strictly speaking, that's Monday morning), with the ceremony itself kicking off an hour later at 1am.

My favourite films of 2017 #10-1

Body snatchers: Daniel Kaluuya's Chris is in big trouble in Get Out

We've reached the final leg of our journey through my favourite films of 2017 and some of you are probably going to want to biff me on the nose for omitting certain movies from my top 40 list. Call Me By Your Name? Admired it more than I liked it – couldn't warm to either of the main characters. Good Time? Robert Pattinson's superb, but it isn't a patch on the Safdie brothers' previous movie, Heaven Knows What. Blade Runner 2049? Beautiful visuals but an unnecessary sequel that bored me to tears. Star Wars: The Last Jedi? Probably my favourite SW film since The Empire Strikes Back, but it only really clicked in the final hour. And that's the beauty of film – there are no right or wrong answers. Like what you like, watch what you want. As long as you enjoy it, it's really none of mine nor anyone else's business. That said, feel free to remonstrate with my choices in the comments. I have a thick skin, I can take it...

10. Personal Shopper
Director: Olivier Assayas  UK release date: 17 March
Kristin Stewart reunites with Clouds Of Sils Maria director Assayas for this strange and horror-inflected meditation on grief, loneliness and, quite possibly, madness. Stewart is Maureen, an American living in Paris and working as a general dog's body for Kyra, a ghastly celebrity model. She is also a medium, desperate to make contact with the spirit of her dead twin brother, who has passed away following a heart attack (she shares his condition). Maureen's life is sad and absurd; discussing ectoplasm-spewing spirits one minute, writing huge cheques for her employer's obscenely expensive outfits and accessories the next. A lengthy scene in which Stewart goes to London and back again on Eurostar, all the while exchanging texts with a mysterious person or entity, is Assayas at his most audacious.

9. mother!
Director: Darren Aronofsky  UK release date: 15 September
The year's most divisive film fully deserves its reputation as Noah director Aronofsky serves up a feast of religious allegory, radical green politics and Grand Guignol. Javier Bardem is Him, a poet who lives with his young bride, the titular Mother (Jennifer Lawrence), in a big, beautiful, isolated house she has renovated from scratch. Their seemingly idyllic existence comes under threat with the arrival of Ed Harris and his wife Michelle Pfeiffer, spinning out of control altogether when Lawrence becomes pregnant and Bardem attracts a cult following, who not only turn up at the house but move in and start smashing it up. And just when you think matters have got just about as unhinged as they can, we career into an hysterical final act that'll make you question your sanity (or Aronofsky's). Love it or hate it, mother! takes more risks than any film I've seen this year and nearly all of them pay off spectacularly.

8. I Am Not A Witch
Director: Rungano Nyoni  UK release date: 20 October
In I Am Not A Witch, Zambian-Welsh filmmaker Nyoni gave us one of the year's most startling feature debuts, which she wrote as well as directed. It's a surreal social satire set in the country of Nyoni's birth and focuses on Shula (Maggie Mulubwa), a nine-year-old girl accused of witchcraft, who is shipped off to a "witch camp" in the Zambian desert. The camp is populated with women of all ages and, like Shula, they have all been interned on spurious charges. Attached to a long white ribbon and bulky spindle, like the other prisoners, Shula is told if she ever tries to escape she will be cursed and transformed into a goat. She is soon noticed by a government official who exploits her supposed abilities to his own ends. Nyoni's target is the misogyny that exists in Zambian society, with an added wrinkle... witch camps are in fact real and she visited several in Ghana and Zambia during research for the film. Mulubwa gives a restrained performance well beyond her tender years, while Nyoni's writing is full of acerbic wit.

7. Moonlight
Director: Barry Jenkins  UK release date: 17 February
Jenkins' Best Picture Oscar winner is probably too subtle for its own good at times and it took me a couple of watches before his movie's considerable charms inveigled their way into my heart. But, once you get past those early doubts, Moonlight is a beautifully judged and entirely powerful piece of work boasting great performances (especially Naomie Harris, Mahershala Ali, and Alex R Hibbert), superb storytelling and seductive visuals. It follows the same African-American character, Chiron, at three different but crucial stages of his life – child, teenager and man – as he strives to come to terms with both a difficult upbringing (Harris plays his crack-addict mother, he has no father) and his sexuality. We've all seen moving love stories before but Moonlight is a rarity – an on-screen exploration of masculinity and homosexuality that is warm, intimate, and sensitive.

6. The Handmaiden
Director: Park Chan-wook  UK release date: 14 April
Sumptuous adaptation of Sarah Waters' novel, The Fingersmith, which relocates the action from Victorian England to 1930s Korea. As part of a criminal scheme, a young pickpocket (Kim Tae-ri), is sent to work for a Japanese heiress (Kim Min-hee) betrothed to her repulsive uncle (Cho Jin-woong). Instead of fleecing her employer, however, she falls in love with her and the two commence an affair. The Handmaiden is all about deception – during the film's three separate chapters, it time and again picks the pocket of your expectations. Park deliberately withholds information and skews perspectives, making for a discombobulating ride that keeps you on your toes every step of the way.

5. The Florida Project
Director: Sean Baker  UK release date: 10 November
Baker's follow-up to 2015's Tangerine (aka the movie filmed on an iPhone) is set in the Magic Castle, a Floridian motel just a hop, skip and a jump from the nearby Walt Disney World resort. Intended for tourists, it is also home to a great many low-income, short-stay families including, in this case, single mum Halley (Bria Vinaite) and her six-year-old daughter Moonee (Brooklynn Prince). Precocious Moonee spends her summer days getting into scrapes with her friends, Scooty and Jancey, while her mum desperately tries to make ends meet. The irony here, of course, is that the motel and its surrounding area is a wonderland of fun and frolics for the kids but a penniless nightmare for Halley. Likewise, the garishly-painted façade of the motels may make them look like part of the Disney empire but the grim reality is light years away. Baker's visually sumptuous film – which doesn't overly concern itself with matters of plot – makes you laugh, makes you think, and isn't afraid to break your heart too. Willem Defoe, as the motel manager, hasn't been this good in years.

4. Raw
Director: Julia Ducournau  UK release date: 7 April
"Visceral" is a word thrown around by film critics to describe any bit of old tat with some violence in it these days. It's a word that has lost its power through repetition but one that nevertheless fits this extraordinary French cannibal film like a bloodied glove. A teenage vegetarian (Garance Marillier) is made to eat a rabbit heart as part of her initiation at a veterinary college and soon develops a taste for meat, including the human variety. Ducournau's unsparing film can be viewed as a straight-no-chaser horror flick or a coming of age yarn about a young woman transitioning into dog-eat-dog adulthood, but it adroitly juggles many other themes too, including sexual awakening, teenage rebellion, and sibling rivalry. Those reports of walk-outs and fainting at its festival showings only tell half the story because, underneath its blood and guts, Ducournau's film has smarts to spare.

3. Get Out
Director: Jordan Peele  UK release date: 17 March
Anyone who only knows US comedian Peele from his part in 2016's limp cat comedy, Keanu, is likely to be knocked out of their seat by this whip-smart combination of horror and satire that tackles the notion that America, even under Obama, was ever a post-racial society. British actor Daniel Kaluuya is in a mixed race relationship with his white girlfriend (Allison Williams) and one weekend she takes him to meet her moneyed, progressive parents at their remote country estate. They're initially friendly but clearly uncomfortable in his presence and that soon gives way to something far more sinister. Peele (previously best known in the US for the Key & Peele sketch show) combines Guess Who's Coming To Dinner and Invasion Of The Body Snatchers to give us a startling piece of work that puts liberal white America under the microscope and really doesn't like what he sees there.

2. Manchester By The Sea

Director: Kenneth Lonergan  UK release date: 13 January
Excoriating, heart-rending drama starring Best Actor Oscar winner Casey Affleck as a grief-stricken janitor returning home to the titular Massachusetts seaside town following the death of his older brother. There he has to confront a terrible secret from his past whilst struggling to forge a path into a more hopeful future. Director Lonergan's sharp script balances the bleakness with occasional stabs of wry humour, Michelle Williams is dependably superb as Affleck's estranged wife, while the actor himself turns in one of 21st Century Hollywood's great performances. The scene in which the pair bump into each other in the street, and the full weight of their shared history and suffering bears down upon them, is not only extraordinarily moving but also genuinely upsetting.

1. Elle
Director: Paul Verhoeven  UK release date: 10 March
A provocative revenge fantasy of sorts which sees Isabelle Huppert's icy CEO, Michèle Leblanc, raped in her Paris apartment before commencing a strange and erotically-charged game of cat and mouse with her attacker. It's a divisive film that no one seems to entirely agree upon. Is it suggesting that women secretly enjoy the experience of sexual violence? Or is it an anti-rape statement skewering the male need to subjugate difficult, powerful women? For me, Elle entertains both notions, but seeks to discuss them as part of something else – the way in which his characters exploit, degrade and hurt each other on a regular basis, and how such behaviour ultimately coarsens and cheapens their relationships and society in general.

On the surface, Elle is only a short walk from the likes of Basic Instinct (director Verhoeven's 1992 potboiler, starring Sharon Stone), but it's a far more complex and rewarding work than that, helped enormously by Huppert's total immersion in one of modern cinema's most unreadable characters. Based on the novel Oh... by Philippe Djian, Verhoeven's film toys with viewers' expectations – at what point does Huppert's character Michelle really know the identity of her rapist? Is she telling the truth about a terrible incident from her childhood? Is she a sociopath and as much a villain as the man who attacked her? Ultimately, though, this is a film about violation, sexual assault being the most extreme form of that.

With one notable exception (Michele's son, Vincent, played by Jonas Bloquet), the characters here are all pretty ghastly – from the cheating husband of Michele's best friend to the gold-digging gigolo who moves in with her mum, from the sleazy meme guy in her office to Michele herself, a rape victim who, in her day job, is happy to develop, produce and sell a video game containing repulsive images of sexual assault.

The veteran Dutch director's point seems to be that his characters (and, by extension, we, the viewing public) step all over each other's needs and feelings so much, all the time, that it has become normalised – almost a default setting. Moreover, eventually, we come to not just accept it and expect it, but perhaps even to like it. A chilling thought upon which to end...

PREVIOUS WINNERS
2016 - The Witch (director: Robert Eggers)
2015 - The New Girlfriend (François Ozon)
2014 - Under The Skin (Jonathan Glazer)

My 25 favourite films of 2017 so far: Part Two #10-1

After yesterday's appetiser, here's the main course - my top 10 favourite films of the year so far. To be considered, movies had to have been released into UK cinemas between 1 January and 30 June 2017. Releases exclusive to VOD, Blu-ray and DVD did not qualify for inclusion.

10. Prevenge
Director: Alice Lowe UK release date: 10 February
Director/writer/star Lowe makes the tricky art of comedy-horror look easy in her filmmaking debut, shot when she was seven months' pregnant. She plays Ruth, newly widowed and bearing a child that exhorts her to take bloody revenge on those responsible for her partner's death. Yes, it's funny (Lowe earned her comedy chops on the likes of Garth Marenghi's Darkplace, so how could it not be?) but Prevenge is also joyously grisly, at times channelling the likes of Rosemary's Baby and Andrzej Zulawski's deranged Possession to great effect. I can't wait to see what she does next. 

9. I Am Not Your Negro
Director: Raoul Peck UK release date: 7 April

Narrated by Samuel L Jackson, Peck's fascinating documentary about black novelist, playwright, poet and activist James Baldwin focusses mainly on an unfinished book - Remember This House - which was to feature his memories of three great black American leaders: Medgar Evers, Malcolm X, and Martin Luther King, as well as ruminations on US history. Baldwin - a startlingly brilliant orator and formidable intellect - knew all three men well and stood by horrified as one by one they met violent ends during the 1960s. As a result there's a mixture of anger and sadness in Peck's film, feelings perfectly articulated in Baldwin's oratory, particularly lines such as: "The story of the negro in America is the story of America. It is not a pretty story." Bringing Baldwin's writing bang up to date, Peck shows us how that story hasn't got any prettier.

8. Personal Shopper

Director: Olivier Assayas UK release date: 17 March
Kristin Stewart reunites with Clouds Of Sils Maria director Assayas for this strange and horror-inflected meditation on grief and loneliness. Stewart is an American living in Paris and working as a general dog's body for a ghastly celebrity model. She is also a medium, desperate to make contact with the spirit of her dead twin brother, who has passed away following a heart attack (she shares his condition). A lengthy scene in which Stewart goes to London and back again on Eurostar, all the while exchanging texts with a mysterious person or entity, is Assayas at his most playful and audacious. 

7. La La Land

Director: Damien Chazelle UK release date: 13 January

Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone can't sing or dance like Gene Kelly and Debbie Reynolds but this musical love letter to old Hollywood, romance and jazz is utterly charming. Gosling's a struggling pianist, Stone an unloved actress, but the pair's passion for each other acts as rocket fuel for their ambition and self-belief, much improving their career fortunes even as the relationship founders. Yes, it's corny and whilst Gosling and Stone certainly have chemistry, their actual relationship is oddly chaste. That said, the song and dance numbers are mostly terrific (especially the opener, Another Day Of Sun), and Chazelle serves up a bravura ending a million miles from the saccharine-fest I was expecting.

6. Get Out
Director: Jordan Peele UK release date: 17 March

Anyone who only knows US comedian Peele from his part in last year's limp cat comedy, Keanu, is likely to be knocked out of their seat by this whip-smart combination of horror and satire that has its sights firmly trained on the notion that, since Obama, America is a post-racial society. British actor Daniel Kaluuya is in a mixed race relationship with his white girlfriend (Allison Williams) and one weekend she takes him to meet her moneyed, progressive parents at their remote country estate. They're initially friendly but clearly uncomfortable in his presence and that soon gives way to something far more sinister. Peele (previously best known in the US for the Key & Peele sketch show) puts liberal white America under the microscope and really doesn't like what he sees there.

5. Raw
Director: Julia Ducournau UK release date: 7 April

"Visceral" is a word thrown around by film critics to describe any bit of old tat with some violence in it these days. It's a word that has lost its power through repetition but one that nevertheless fits this extraordinary French cannibal film like a bloodied glove. A teenage vegetarian (Garance Marillier) is made to eat a rabbit heart as part of her initiation at a veterinary college and soon develops a taste for meat, including the human variety. Ducournau's unsparing film can be viewed as a straight-no-chaser horror flick or a coming of age yarn about a young woman transitioning into dog-eat-dog adulthood, but it adroitly juggles many other themes too, including sexual awakening, teenage rebellion, and sibling rivalry.  

4. Moonlight
Director: Barry Jenkins UK release date: 17 February
Jenkins' Best Picture Oscar winner is probably too subtle for its good at times and it certainly took me a couple of watches before his movie's considerable charms inveigled their way into my heart. But, once you get past those early doubts, Moonlight is a beautifully judged and entirely powerful piece of work boasting great performances (especially Naomie Harris, Mahershala Ali, and Alex R Hibbert) and superb storytelling. It follows the same character, Chiron, at three different stages of his life as he strives to come to terms with his difficult upbringing and also with his sexuality. It's a delicate, low-key film, and I was therefore astonished - but delighted - the Academy gave it the nod over La La Land.

3. The Handmaiden
Director: Park Chan-wook UK release date: 14 April
Sumptuous adaptation of Sarah Waters' novel, The Fingersmith, which relocates the action from Victorian England to 1930s Korea. As part of a criminal scheme, a young pickpocket (Kim Tae-ri), is sent to work for a Japanese heiress (Kim Min-hee) betrothed to her repulsive uncle (Cho Jin-woong). Instead of fleecing her employer, however, she falls in love with her and the two commence an affair. The Handmaiden is all about deception - during the film's three separate chapters, it time and again picks the pocket of your expectations. Park deliberately withholds information and skews perspectives, making for a discombobulating ride that keeps you on your toes every step of the way.

2. Manchester By The Sea
Director: Kenneth Lonergan UK release date: 13 January
Excoriating, heart-rending drama starring Best Actor Oscar winner Casey Affleck as a grief-stricken janitor returning home to the titular Massachusetts seaside town following the death of his older brother. There he has to confront a terrible secret from his past whilst struggling to forge a path into a more hopeful future. Director Lonergan's sharp script balances the bleakness with occasional stabs of wry humour, Michelle Williams is dependably superb in a supporting role and Affleck turns in one of 21st Century Hollywood's great performances. You'll cry, you'll laugh, you'll cry some more. You'll carry on crying until you realise everyone in the cinema is looking at you...

1. Elle
Director: Paul Verhoeven UK release date: 10 March
An outrageous and audacious revenge fantasy of sorts which sees Isabelle Huppert's icy video game executive raped in her Paris apartment before commencing a strange and erotically-charged game of cat and mouse with her attacker. It's an incredibly divisive film that no one seems to entirely agree upon. Is it suggesting that women secretly like sexual violence? Or is it an anti-rape statement skewering the male need to subjugate difficult, powerful women? On the surface, Elle is only a short walk away from the likes of Basic Instinct (director Verhoeven's 1992 potboiler starring Sharon Stone) but it's a far more complex and rewarding work than that, helped enormously by Huppert's total immersion in one of modern cinema's most unreadable characters. Oh and, SPOILER ALERT, I think she knows who her attacker is from the moment she first lays eyes on him.

Finally, a few mid-year awards...
Best straight to VOD/DVD/streaming film: Macon Blair's I Don't Feel At Home In This World Anymore on Netflix.
Most pleasant surprise: Matt Damon is miscast as a grizzled mercenary and the quality of the CGI is variable but The Great Wall gives good blockbuster. 
Tip for the top: Julia Ducournau, the director of Raw (see #5), is going to be HUGE.
Worst film: Take your pick from Assassin's Creed or Power Rangers (although I'm yet to see Transformers: The Last Knight).
Biggest disappointment: Edgar Wright's Baby Driver is a lot of fun but hardly worth all those five-star reviews. See also Toni Erdmann.
Most ill-advised acting choice: Jake Gyllenhaal as a grotesque Aussie TV animal-wrangler in Okja. Ruined the whole film and reminded me of Robert De Niro's similarly OTT turn in The Adventures Of Rocky & Bullwinkle. Not a good look, mate. 
Wish for the rest of the year: That adult fans of comic-book movies finally start to engage their critical faculties and stop declaring every bit of super-powered tat that comes their way  "awesome" or "amazing".