Everyone is talking about the Oscars, why should this blog be any different?

Wrong arm of the law: Rockwell and McDormand face off in Three Billboards

This year's Academy Awards ceremony takes place tomorrow (Sunday, March 4), so I thought it might be fun to take a look at which movies, actors and directors are being tipped to pick up the Oscars. Rather than rely only on my own prejudices and predictions, I've also taken a look at what people who know what they are talking about reckon, and have presented the results below. There's nothing scientific about it, the 10 websites/publications I chose to feature here were randomly selected, but paint an interesting picture of where the smart money in each category is going. Featuring every one of the Oscars' 24 different categories would take all day, so I've chosen just 13 to talk about (not all of our tipsters made predictions in every category). Before diving in, you can check out all this year's nominees here.

Best Picture
Variety: Get Out
EW.com: The Shape Of Water
USA Today: Three Billboards
Vanity Fair: Get Out
Hollywood Reporter: The Shape Of Water
Den Of Geek: The Shape Of Water
Deadline: The Shape Of Water
New York Times: The Shape Of Water
Daily Telegraph: Get Out
The Playlist: The Shape Of Water

Of the "big six" categories, this is the only one that our tipsters can't seem to agree upon. It looks like a three-way tussle between Get Out, The Shape Of Water and Three Billboards, with Guillermo Del Toro's Cold War fairytale having the edge. The fact Martin McDonagh didn't pick up a Best Director nomination is not a good sign for Three Billboards' chances – only four films in Oscars history have won Best Picture without an accompanying Best Director nod. The last time it happened was in 2013, when the mediocre Argo somehow took the top prize, while helmer Ben Affleck was left out in the cold. On the other hand, the Academy are not exactly the biggest fans of sci-fi/fantasy or horror, which seems to count against Get Out and Shape. I reckon Del Toro's film might just take it, although it wouldn't surprise me if Three Billboards repeated its success from the Baftas and Golden Globes. A win for Shape, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread or would make me most happy.

Gone fishing: Sally Hawkins stars in Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape Of Water

Best Director
Variety: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
EW.com: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
USA Today: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
Vanity Fair: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
Hollywood Reporter: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
Den Of Geek: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Deadline: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
New York Times: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
Daily Telegraph: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
The Playlist: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)

Bless Den Of Geek for trying to make this category's potential outcome a little more interesting, but our other tipsters all seem to think there's only one horse in the race. The Shape Of Water isn't perfect, nor is it even Del Toro's best film, but he looks a shoo-in. As the New York Times pointed out, a Del Toro victory would mark the fourth time in five years a Mexican has won the Best Director Oscar. This is a very strong category and I'd be delighted whoever won.

Drive angry: Ronan and Metcalf feud in Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird

Best Actress

Variety: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
EW.com: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
USA Today: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Vanity Fair: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Hollywood Reporter: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Den Of Geek: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Deadline: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
New York Times: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Daily Telegraph: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
The Playlist: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

One thing I think we can all agree upon is that The Shape Of Water's Sally Hawkins hasn't got a prayer here. In the year of #MeToo and #Time'sUp, there's no way the Academy is going to give its Best Actress gong to someone playing a mute woman. Thing is, I'm not sure McDormand should be carrying off the award either. Three Billboards' grieving mother Mildred Hayes might seem fearless and righteous but, once you recover from the initial shock of her behaviour, you realise she's incredibly one-note. Angry and mean, angry and mean, rinse and repeat. McDormand couldn't turn in a mediocre performance if her life depended on it and she rises impressively to the challenge of her thinly-written role, but, if we're discounting Hawkins, there's one place and one place only this award should be going. Saoirse Ronan's performance in Lady Bird turns what would be a very good coming-of-age movie into a great one.

Life during wartime: Kristin Scott Thomas and Gary Oldman star in Darkest Hour

Best Actor

Variety: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
EW.com: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
USA Today: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Vanity Fair: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Hollywood Reporter: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Den Of Geek: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Deadline: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
New York Times: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Daily Telegraph: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
The Playlist: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Gary Oldman it is then. Helped by some fine prosthetic work, he is terrific as Winston Churchill, but I have a preference for actors who create their characters from scratch, rather than turning in impersonations, however impressive and eye-catching they might be. I shall be rooting for Daniel Day-Lewis, and not just because his turn as dressmaker Reynolds Woodcock in Paul Thomas Anderson's sublime Phantom Thread supposedly marks his acting swansong. His character is a difficult and complicated man, and Day-Lewis captures every infuriating nuance of him. It is the best performance in this category by a considerable margin, and Day-Lewis fully deserves another Oscar to go with the three he has won already.

Bird is the word: Allison Janney as Lavona Golden in I, Tonya

Best Supporting Actress

Variety: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

EW.com: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

USA Today: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Vanity Fair: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Hollywood Reporter: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Den Of Geek: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Deadline: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

New York Times: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Daily Telegraph: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
The Playlist: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Another category in which the victor seems nailed on, with Den Of Geek's alternative suggestion one surely born of hope rather than expectation. Allison Janney is a terrific actress with a glittering CV but, like Frances McDormand in Three Billboards, her character in I, Tonya – disgraced ice-skater Tonya Harding's mother, Lavona – is extraordinarily one note. She's a pantomime villain in a cartoonish film and Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), for their far subtler work, would both be far more deserving victors.

Maniac cop: Harrelson tries to keep Rockwell out of trouble in Three Billboards

Best Supporting Actor
Variety: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
EW.com: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
USA Today: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Vanity Fair: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Hollywood Reporter: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Den Of Geek: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Deadline: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
New York Times: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Daily Telegraph: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
The Playlist: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

After winning a Golden Globe, a Screen Actors Guild Award, and a Bafta, it would be a shock of seismic proportions if Sam Rockwell didn't clean up here too. As you may have gathered, I'm not a big fan of Three Billboards, so find it impossible to share the enthusiasm for either the film or his performance in it. I didn't believe in Rockwell's character – racist cop Jason Dixon – for a single second, least of all his "redemption" of sorts towards the end. Woody Harrelson is better in the same film, while Christopher Plummer surely deserves some sort of medal for stepping into Kevin Spacey's shoes at very short notice to portray John Paul Getty so vividly in All The Money In The World. Personally, though, I'd like to see Willem Dafoe win for his warm-but-increasingly-exasperated turn as motel manager Bobby, in The Florida Project, a wonderful film that has been all but ignored by the Academy. 

Dear white people: Get Out is in the running for the Best Picture Oscar

Best Original Screenplay
Variety: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
EW.com: Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Vanity Fair: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Hollywood Reporter: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Den Of Geek: Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor (The Shape Of Water)
Deadline: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
New York Times: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
The Playlist: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

As much as I adore Lady Bird, if Get Out doesn't win here there should be some sort of lengthy and far-reaching public inquiry. Jordan Peele's script manages to mix comedy, drama, horror and biting social satire to extraordinary effect. Some reports have suggested older members of the Academy have refused to even watch Get Out because they don't consider it an "Oscar film". These are probably the same people who voted for Argo...

Apes of wrath: Andy Serkis and Co are back for the prequel trilogy's climax 

Best Visual Effects
Variety: War For The Planet Of The Apes
Vanity Fair: War For The Planet Of The Apes
Hollywood Reporter: Blade Runner 2049
Den Of Geek: War For The Planet Of The Apes
Deadline: War For The Planet Of The Apes
The Playlist: War For The Planet Of The Apes

The final part of the Planet Of The Apes prequel trilogy would be a worthy winner here, with Andy Serkis and his motion-capture acting troupe once again knocking it out of the park. Blade Runner 2049 boasted some superb visuals, but was surely torpedoed by that one scene towards the end featuring a returning character from the original film. It looked every bit as convincing as the Grand Moff Tarkin CG creation did in Rogue One. So, not very then.

Orange crush: Will it be 14th time lucky for Blade Runner 2049's Deakins?

Best Cinematography

Variety: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
Vanity Fair: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
Hollywood Reporter: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
Den Of Geek: Dan Laustsen (The Shape Of Water)
Deadline: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
The Playlist: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)

After 13 previous nominations, his first for The Shawshank Redemption back in 1994, this is surely the year when Roger Deakins finally breaks his Oscars duck. Blade Runner 2049 is a deeply flawed film, its merits almost entirely down to Deakins' DP work. The astonishing sequence set in what used to be Las Vegas, with the former casino capital swathed in bright orange fog, is the stuff of pure cinema. Could anything stop him? Indeed. As Variety points out, it’s rare for the cinematography prize to go to a film that isn't nominated for Best Picture. Plus, his rivals – which include Mudbound's Rachel Morrison, the first woman ever to be nominated in this category – would hardly be undeserving winners either. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed though.

Wonder Woman: Daniela Vega shines in Sebastián Lelio's film

Best Foreign-Language Film

Variety: A Fantastic Woman
Vanity Fair: A Fantastic Woman
Hollywood Reporter: The Insult
Deadline: The Insult
New York Times: A Fantastic Woman
The Playlist: A Fantastic Woman

There's a split here between Chile's A Fantastic Woman (directed by Sebastián Lelio) and Lebanon's The Insult (helmed by Ziad Doueiri). This is a strange one for me as I'm yet to see the latter film (it doesn't seem to have a UK release date yet). And while I enjoyed A Fantastic Woman and it would be a worthy winner, I'll be cheering for off-beat romance On Body And Soul (from Hungary) and excoriating missing-child drama Loveless (from Russia). The Square, last year's winner of the Palme d'Or at Cannes, is also nominated, but didn't deserve that award and doesn't deserve to triumph here either. (Oh, and BPM's omission from the final shortlist looks even sillier now, after Robin Campillo's film bagged six awards at the Césars).

Summer nights: Call Me By Your Name was one of 2017's most passionate love stories 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Variety: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
EW.com: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
Vanity Fair: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
Hollywood Reporter: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)

Den Of Geek: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
Deadline: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
New York Times: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
The Playlist: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)

I'm surprised Call Me By Your Name is seen as such a dead cert here because it's the film's languid pace, winning performances and sumptuous camerawork that are its selling points, rather than any sparkling dialogue or innovative storytelling. Still, no one would begrudge James Ivory – who adapted André Aciman's novel for the big screen – a first Academy Award at the age of 89, after being nominated on three previous occasions as Best Director. However, for my money, this award should be going to Dee Rees' Mudbound, which makes good use of multiple narrators to tell an ambitious tale of two families – one white, one black – in the American South, post-World War II. In two hours and change, Rees' adaptation of the Virgil Williams novel covers an awful lot of ground and does so powerfully, economically and poetically.

What not to wear: Another Woodcock "classic" is unveiled in Phantom Thread

Best Costume Design

Variety: Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)
Vanity Fair: Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)
Hollywood Reporter: Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)
Den Of Geek: Jacqueline Durran (Darkest Hour)
Deadline: Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)
The Playlist: Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)

One of Phantom Thread's best jokes is that Reynolds Woodcock's dresses are all fairly horrible and the rich, indolent fools who troop through his palatial London fashion house have terrible taste. The idea Paul Thomas Anderson's film should therefore find itself nominated in this category is something I suspect the director finds genuinely amusing (not to mention ironic). The way things are shaping up, it's likely to be the only Oscar the film takes home, so I'm nevertheless hoping for a win.

The great escape: Nolan's Dunkirk expertly recreated Operation Dynamo

Best Original Score
Variety: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)
Vanity Fair: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)
Hollywood Reporter: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)
Den Of Geek: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)
Deadline: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)
The Playlist: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)

The Shape Of Water is again the frontrunner here, but I hope this is one category where it doesn't emerge victorious. Alexandre Desplat's score is perfectly lovely, fitting both the film's romantic and fairytale themes, but it simply isn't in the same league as at least two of the other nominees. Hans Zimmer's score for Dunkirk is an exercise in tension. Start listening to it and I guarantee that, within five minutes, you'll be biting your nails, tapping your foot and feeling decidedly on edge. Of all five scores nominated in this category, it is the one that fits the film's visual and storytelling elements most perfectly. Jonny Greenwood's score for Phantom Thread is far more decorative, a sumptuous, lavish creation recorded with a 60-piece orchestra. Simply put, it's beautiful. Zimmer or Greenwood would be very worthy winners here.

The 90th Academy Awards, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, will be shown live in the UK on Sky Cinema Oscars tomorrow night (Sunday, March 4). Red carpet coverage commences at midnight (so, strictly speaking, that's Monday morning), with the ceremony itself kicking off an hour later at 1am.